Regime · Macro Full LS · set on the close of 1 Nov 2026

Invested, moderate size50% in crypto, the rest in gold and cash

Core 38%Satellite 13%Gold 25%Cash 25%

Long trend up, short trend down: a turn may be under way. Buyers have had the upper hand in recent weeks. Money flows and real interest rates weigh on risk assets.

Rotation: Steady.Share of the top 5 coins in the crypto market, stablecoins and tokenized assets aside, over the last year (rising: the majors lead, falling: alt season)

TrendTransition

MomentumPositive

Macro backdropHeadwind

Next reviewMonday 9 NovEarlier if Bitcoin moves sharply.

Market state

Where the market sits against its long and short trend. The dots show the last 90 days; the trend state waits for a confirmed move.

TrendTransitionLong trend up, short trend down: a turn may be under way.

MomentumPositiveBuyers have had the upper hand in recent weeks.

Macro backdropHeadwindMoney flows and real interest rates weigh on risk assets.

Track recordData to 2 Nov 2026

Macro Full LS+300%worst drop -33%

Bitcoin+65%worst drop -66%

Top 5+48%worst drop -66%

Satellite-49%worst drop -79%

Macro Full LS simulated after costs until 28 Oct 2026, live after. Top 5 and satellite: the two baskets held alone, before costs.

Allocation over timeCoreSatelliteGoldCashBitcoin short

Above zero: what the book holds (core, satellite, gold, cash). Below zero: the Bitcoin short in a bear market. The model's book (simulated).

Crypto vs the wider market

Do they move together, and is crypto keeping up?

How to read this: each chart is Total market cap and the market rebased to 0% at the start of the window. The lines wiggling together is Move together (same-day direction); the gap that opens is who's ahead. Swing size = how big crypto's moves are (beta); Kept pace? = the gap in points. Moving together is not the same as keeping up.

Crypto & the S&P 500

━ Total market cap −25%┈ S&P 500 +11%

Move together (correlation)loosely together · +0.45

Swing size (beta)1.4× the market↓ 1.4× · ↑ 1.0×

Kept pace? (relative return)lagged −36 pts

Crypto & the Nasdaq

━ Total market cap −25%┈ Nasdaq +9%

Move together (correlation)loosely together · +0.43

Swing size (beta)0.8× the market↓ 0.9× · ↑ 0.7×

Kept pace? (relative return)lagged −34 pts

Crypto & gold

━ Total market cap −25%┈ Gold −1%

Move together (correlation)loosely together · +0.23

Swing size (beta)0.3× the market↓ 0.3× · ↑ 0.1×

Kept pace? (relative return)lagged −23 pts

Crypto & the US dollar

━ Total market cap −25%┈ US dollar +2%

Move together (correlation)on its own · −0.19

Swing size (beta)1.5× the market (opposite)↓ -0.5× · ↑ -1.8×

Kept pace? (relative return)lagged −26 pts

Long-term value guide

Bitcoin vs its power-law fair value

undervalued

26% up the support to resistance band

Over its whole history Bitcoin's price has grown along a power law of time, a straight line on a log-price / log-age chart. The fair-value line is that fit; the band is where price has stayed about 98% of the time. It's a slow orientation of cheap vs expensive, not a price forecast.

Right of the dashed line is a forward projection.

Fit R² 0.914 over 4,938 daily points since 2013. A model, not advice.

Price now

$76.7k

Fair value

$118.5k

Price vs fair

−35% below

Cheaper than

74% of history

Today's band: $38.1k support · $118.5k fair · $590.2k resistance

Macro Full LS is a live xris.ai strategy. Simulated track record. Not investment advice.